With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's revised hardware forecast reflects disappointing Switch and game sales, falling below expectations. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console business revenue dropped 31.7% year-on-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), due to decreased Switch and software sales. Mobile and IP-related income also declined by 33.9% year-on-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), largely attributed to the tough comparison with 2023's highly successful Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-on-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, now predicting even fewer Switch hardware and software sales. Switch hardware sales expectations are reduced by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million. While sales declines are expected for the eight-year-old console, the drop is steeper than anticipated. Despite this, the Switch has achieved remarkable success with over 150 million units sold, nearing the sales figures of the Nintendo DS (154 million) and potentially challenging the PlayStation 2 (160 million) for the title of best-selling console.

Nintendo describes Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as “stable” considering the console’s age. Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-on-year at 9.54 million units, with software sales down 24.4% to 123.98 million units. However, The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) performed well during the quarter, along with Mario & Luigi: Brothership (1.4 million). Super Mario Party Jamboree, in particular, exceeded sales of previous Mario Party titles in its first 11 weeks.

Significantly, active Switch users reached a record 129 million in 2024, indicating continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo highlights that holiday sales in some weeks even surpassed those of the previous year.

Given the financial report, investor anticipation for the Switch 2 is high. Nintendo announced the upcoming release of Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20), Pokémon Legends: Z-A, and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (both in 2025) for the original Switch. The company also reaffirmed the Switch 2's 2025 release, promising a dedicated Direct presentation on April 2nd and global hands-on events.